Real Estate Information

Investment bank Goldman Sachs recently predicted that mortgage rates won’t rise much when the Federal Reserve ends its purchases of mortgage-backed securities at the end of March.

Part of the reason is that demand for mortgages is low, says Goldman analyst Sven Jari Stehn. What would drive up mortgage rates, he says, is a decision by the Fed to sell the mortgage backs it holds, but that isn’t likely to happen anytime soon, he believes.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Emily Friedlander 03/05/2010

Will people who currently face foreclosure or short sales or who walk away from their underwater properties ever be able to get financing to buy another home down the road?

Banks haven’t been very forthcoming on this issue. However, knowledgeable observers of the situation say that while it may take some time, the situation will right itself for most people.

Because bankrupt borrowers have eliminated their debts, they should "constitute attractive fodder for mortgage lenders," says University of Michigan law professor John Pottow, whose specialty is bankruptcy.

As home prices and the mortgage market stabilize, lenders will be motivated to lend to people who previously had financial troubles if they look like they can pay the next time around, says Alan Riegler, a consultant with CCG Catalyst, which advises banks.

"The lender who figures out how to do more of this case-by-case stuff cost-effectively is going to end up ahead of the pack," Riegler says.

Source: Inman News, Matt Carter (03/05/2010)

Pending home sales are down and additional declines are expected from abnormal weather conditions, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, fell 7.6 percent to 90.4 from an upwardly revised 97.8 in December, but remains 12.3 percent higher than January 2009, when it was 80.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said weather is likely to impact housing data. “January pending sales, though still higher than one year ago, remain much lower than expected given that a large number of potential buyers are eligible for the expanded home buyer tax credit. Moreover, the abnormally severe and prolonged winter weather, which affected large regions of the U.S., hampered shopping activity in February,” he said.

As such, abnormal swings are expected in housing data. “We will see weak near-term sales followed by a likely surge of existing-home sales in April, May, and June,” Yun said. “The real question is what happens in the second half of the year. If there is sufficient job creation, housing can become self-sustaining with stable to modestly rising home prices because inventory has been trending downward.”

Here’s a look at pending home sales numbers by region:

• Northeast: Pending home sales fell 8.7 percent to 71.3 in January, but are 20.5 percent higher than January 2009.
• Midwest: The index dropped 8.9 percent to 81.2 but is 11.8 percent above a year ago.
• South: Pending home sales slipped 2.1 percent to an index of 98.1, but the index is 18.0 percent higher than January 2009.
• West: The index dropped 13.2 percent to 102.9 but is 1.4 percent above a year ago.

— NAR

The jumbo loan market is starting to thaw, making it easier for move-up buyers to borrow.

Rates on jumbo loans of more than $729,750 in highest-priced markets rose during the financial crisis and lending standards tightened to the point where borrowers couldn’t refinance or get a new loan.

In the last couple of weeks, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate jumbo fell to 5.79 percent, a five-year low, according to rate tracker Informa Research Services. Rates are even lower on hybrid adjustables.

The availability of these loans suggests that banks are feeling more confident since Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration do not insure them.

Source: Los Angeles Times, E. Scott Reckard (02/28/2010)

Potential home buyers who delay have a lot to lose.

First-time home buyer and move-up tax credits worth $8,000 and $6,500, respectively, expire April 30. Buyers who qualify get a dollar-for-dollar reduction in taxes or a cash payment if they don’t pay enough taxes to cover the credit.

Other factors that should spur buyers:

Low mortgage rates. If the Federal Reserve stops buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, 30-year rates will almost certainly rise to more than 6 percent.

Rising prices. About 30 percent of markets are already experiencing price increases. Prices are falling in 12 percent of markets, says Fiserv (but that only helps if you want to live there).

Source: Money Magazine, Beth Braverman (03/02/2010)

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Existing-home sales fell in January but are above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales — including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops — dropped 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million units in January from a revised 5.44 million in December, but remain 11.5 percent above the 4.53 million-unit level in January 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is still some delay between shopping and closing that affected current sales. “Most of the completed deals in January were based on contracts in November and December. People who got into the market after the home buyer tax credit was extended in November have only recently started to offer contracts, so it will take a couple months to close those sales,” he said. “Still, the latest monthly sales decline is not encouraging, and raises concern about the strength of a recovery.”

Inventory Levels

Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 0.5 percent to 3.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.2-month supply in December. Raw unsold inventory is 9.6 percent below a year ago, and is at the lowest level since March 2006.

“Activity should be picking up strongly in late spring as buyers take advantage of the tax credit, which is critical to absorb distressed properties reaching the market and to continually chip away at inventory,” Yun said. “With a downtrend in the number of homes on the market, especially in the lower price ranges, values are beginning to firm but with great variance around the country.”

Median Home Prices

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $164,700 in January, unchanged from a year earlier. Distressed homes, which accounted for 38 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they typically are discounted in comparison with traditional homes in the same area.

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 40 percent of homes in January, down from 43 percent in December. Investors accounted for 17 percent of transactions in January, up from 15 percent in December; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. The survey also shows that buyer traffic increased 9.4 percent in January.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said buying a home in the current environment has become more challenging. “First-time buyers and others who need a mortgage are increasingly losing out to all-cash investors for the best bargains in many areas, particularly for foreclosed homes where cash is king,” she said.

“Inventory conditions vary by price range, and of course there are major differences depending on location. REALTORS® are the best buyer resource for strategies on winning bids in increasingly competitive markets,” Golder said. “The bidding for more desirable homes will only accelerate between now and the April 30 contract deadline to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.03 percent in January from 4.93 percent in December; the rate was 5.05 percent in January 2009.

Single-Family Homes and Condos

Single-family home sales fell 6.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in January from a level of 4.76 million in December, but are 8.6 percent above the 4.08 million pace in January 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $163,600 in January, down 0.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 8.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 in January from 675,000 in December, but are 38.1 percent above the 449,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $172,400 in January, which is 1.4 percent higher than January 2009.

Regional Performance

• Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 10.9 percent to an annual pace of 820,000 in January but are 22.4 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,300, a gain of 8.8 percent from January 2009.

• Existing-home sales in the Midwest declined 6.9 percent in January to a level of 1.08 million but are 8.0 percent higher than January 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $130,300, which is 1.0 percent below a year ago.

• In the South, existing-home sales dropped 7.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.87 million in January but are 12.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $140,200, down 2.0 percent from January 2009.

• Existing-home sales in the West declined 5.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.28 million in January but are 7.6 percent higher than January 2009. The median price in the West was $203,400, down 5.8 percent from a year ago.

— NAR

Sales of new homes declined 11 percent in January from December to the lowest level since the U.S. began keeping records in 1963, according to a report from the U.S. Commerce Department released Wednesday.

Sales dropped to an annual pace of 309,000 with the median price falling to $203,500 in January, the lowest since December 2003. At the current sales rate, there is a 9.1 months' inventory of new homes.

New home purchases are 6 percent of the housing market.

“New-home sales may be at rock-bottom levels, but it looks like the housing correction is not over yet,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., said before the report. “Everyone who was going to buy for the tax credit has already purchased a new home.”

Meanwhile Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, narrowed its losses as new orders doubled. “The housing market took several years to recover, following the downturn of the late 1980s and early 1990s,” Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said in the statement. “We expect this recovery to follow a similar pattern.”

Source: Bloomberg, Bob Willis (02/24/2010)

Home buyers hoping to snag a really good deal on a foreclosed home are finding it increasingly difficult because supply is shrinking.

The number of foreclosures that are available for sale nationwide fell to 617,000 in December, down from 845,000 in November 2008, reports Barclays Capital.

Not only have attractive homes in popular neighborhoods already been snapped up, but also government help for distressed buyers is delaying more foreclosures.

Demand is driving up prices. Investors say typical prices have climbed from 75 percent of appraised value to 85 percent or higher when there are bidding wars.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (02/23/2010)

The Internal Revenue Service has clarified which documentation taxpayers need to submit to claim the first-time and move-up homebuyer tax credit.

While the IRS is still requiring the filing of Form 5405, it is not demanding that all parties’ signatures be on the HUD-1 settlement document in areas where requiring both the buyer and the seller to sign the document isn’t common.

The IRS clarification says: "In areas where signatures are not required on the settlement document, the IRS has clarified that it will accept a settlement statement if it is completed and valid according to local law. … The IRS encourages those buyers to sign the settlement statement prior to attaching it to the tax return.”

For repeat buyers, the IRS is seeking documentation that home buyers have lived in the previous property for a consecutive five of the past eight years. Proof can include property tax records, home owner insurance records, or mortgage interest statements.

http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2010022201?OpenDocument