Jodi Lemkemann's Real Estate Blog

Mortgage Rates to Stay Low, Goldman Predicts

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 13:15:00 GMT

Investment bank Goldman Sachs recently predicted that mortgage rates won’t rise much when the Federal Reserve ends its purchases of mortgage-backed securities at the end of March.

Part of the reason is that demand for mortgages is low, says Goldman analyst Sven Jari Stehn. What would drive up mortgage rates, he says, is a decision by the Fed to sell the mortgage backs it holds, but that isn’t likely to happen anytime soon, he believes.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Emily Friedlander 03/05/2010

Foreclosed Borrowers May Get Loans Again

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Will people who currently face foreclosure or short sales or who walk away from their underwater properties ever be able to get financing to buy another home down the road?

Banks haven’t been very forthcoming on this issue. However, knowledgeable observers of the situation say that while it may take some time, the situation will right itself for most people.

Because bankrupt borrowers have eliminated their debts, they should "constitute attractive fodder for mortgage lenders," says University of Michigan law professor John Pottow, whose specialty is bankruptcy.

As home prices and the mortgage market stabilize, lenders will be motivated to lend to people who previously had financial troubles if they look like they can pay the next time around, says Alan Riegler, a consultant with CCG Catalyst, which advises banks.

"The lender who figures out how to do more of this case-by-case stuff cost-effectively is going to end up ahead of the pack," Riegler says.

Source: Inman News, Matt Carter (03/05/2010)

Pending Home Sales Down

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Pending home sales are down and additional declines are expected from abnormal weather conditions, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, fell 7.6 percent to 90.4 from an upwardly revised 97.8 in December, but remains 12.3 percent higher than January 2009, when it was 80.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said weather is likely to impact housing data. “January pending sales, though still higher than one year ago, remain much lower than expected given that a large number of potential buyers are eligible for the expanded home buyer tax credit. Moreover, the abnormally severe and prolonged winter weather, which affected large regions of the U.S., hampered shopping activity in February,” he said.

As such, abnormal swings are expected in housing data. “We will see weak near-term sales followed by a likely surge of existing-home sales in April, May, and June,” Yun said. “The real question is what happens in the second half of the year. If there is sufficient job creation, housing can become self-sustaining with stable to modestly rising home prices because inventory has been trending downward.”

Here’s a look at pending home sales numbers by region:

• Northeast: Pending home sales fell 8.7 percent to 71.3 in January, but are 20.5 percent higher than January 2009.
• Midwest: The index dropped 8.9 percent to 81.2 but is 11.8 percent above a year ago.
• South: Pending home sales slipped 2.1 percent to an index of 98.1, but the index is 18.0 percent higher than January 2009.
• West: The index dropped 13.2 percent to 102.9 but is 1.4 percent above a year ago.

— NAR

It's Getting Easier to Get a Jumbo Loan

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 15:05:00 GMT

The jumbo loan market is starting to thaw, making it easier for move-up buyers to borrow.

Rates on jumbo loans of more than $729,750 in highest-priced markets rose during the financial crisis and lending standards tightened to the point where borrowers couldn’t refinance or get a new loan.

In the last couple of weeks, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate jumbo fell to 5.79 percent, a five-year low, according to rate tracker Informa Research Services. Rates are even lower on hybrid adjustables.

The availability of these loans suggests that banks are feeling more confident since Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration do not insure them.

Source: Los Angeles Times, E. Scott Reckard (02/28/2010)

Buyers Who Wait May Lose a Lot

Tue, 02 Mar 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Potential home buyers who delay have a lot to lose.

First-time home buyer and move-up tax credits worth $8,000 and $6,500, respectively, expire April 30. Buyers who qualify get a dollar-for-dollar reduction in taxes or a cash payment if they don’t pay enough taxes to cover the credit.

Other factors that should spur buyers:

Low mortgage rates. If the Federal Reserve stops buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, 30-year rates will almost certainly rise to more than 6 percent.

Rising prices. About 30 percent of markets are already experiencing price increases. Prices are falling in 12 percent of markets, says Fiserv (but that only helps if you want to live there).

Source: Money Magazine, Beth Braverman (03/02/2010)

Listing @ 2 Pin Oak, Washington

Mon, 01 Mar 2010 09:59:00 GMT

Meticulous quad level home with over 2700 finished living space.Each level features a unique floor plan.Main floor offers cathedral & vaulted ceilings in living room, kitchen & great room.Great room features wetbar & skylights.Possible main floor master bedroom. Mid level offers family room & bedroom. Master bath features a corner garden tub with skylight.Great Room addition in 2004 on crawl space. 07/08 updates include kitchen remodel,all flooring,paint,garage door,deck,12x12 shed,water heater & appliances.Low 6.90079 tax rate. Measurements are not guaranteed.

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Existing-Home Sales Down, Prices Steady

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Existing-home sales fell in January but are above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales — including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops — dropped 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million units in January from a revised 5.44 million in December, but remain 11.5 percent above the 4.53 million-unit level in January 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is still some delay between shopping and closing that affected current sales. “Most of the completed deals in January were based on contracts in November and December. People who got into the market after the home buyer tax credit was extended in November have only recently started to offer contracts, so it will take a couple months to close those sales,” he said. “Still, the latest monthly sales decline is not encouraging, and raises concern about the strength of a recovery.”

Inventory Levels

Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 0.5 percent to 3.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.2-month supply in December. Raw unsold inventory is 9.6 percent below a year ago, and is at the lowest level since March 2006.

“Activity should be picking up strongly in late spring as buyers take advantage of the tax credit, which is critical to absorb distressed properties reaching the market and to continually chip away at inventory,” Yun said. “With a downtrend in the number of homes on the market, especially in the lower price ranges, values are beginning to firm but with great variance around the country.”

Median Home Prices

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $164,700 in January, unchanged from a year earlier. Distressed homes, which accounted for 38 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they typically are discounted in comparison with traditional homes in the same area.

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 40 percent of homes in January, down from 43 percent in December. Investors accounted for 17 percent of transactions in January, up from 15 percent in December; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. The survey also shows that buyer traffic increased 9.4 percent in January.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said buying a home in the current environment has become more challenging. “First-time buyers and others who need a mortgage are increasingly losing out to all-cash investors for the best bargains in many areas, particularly for foreclosed homes where cash is king,” she said.

“Inventory conditions vary by price range, and of course there are major differences depending on location. REALTORS® are the best buyer resource for strategies on winning bids in increasingly competitive markets,” Golder said. “The bidding for more desirable homes will only accelerate between now and the April 30 contract deadline to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.03 percent in January from 4.93 percent in December; the rate was 5.05 percent in January 2009.

Single-Family Homes and Condos

Single-family home sales fell 6.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in January from a level of 4.76 million in December, but are 8.6 percent above the 4.08 million pace in January 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $163,600 in January, down 0.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 8.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 in January from 675,000 in December, but are 38.1 percent above the 449,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $172,400 in January, which is 1.4 percent higher than January 2009.

Regional Performance

Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 10.9 percent to an annual pace of 820,000 in January but are 22.4 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,300, a gain of 8.8 percent from January 2009.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest declined 6.9 percent in January to a level of 1.08 million but are 8.0 percent higher than January 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $130,300, which is 1.0 percent below a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales dropped 7.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.87 million in January but are 12.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $140,200, down 2.0 percent from January 2009.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 5.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.28 million in January but are 7.6 percent higher than January 2009. The median price in the West was $203,400, down 5.8 percent from a year ago.

— NAR

New-Home Sales Hit Record Low

Wed, 24 Feb 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Sales of new homes declined 11 percent in January from December to the lowest level since the U.S. began keeping records in 1963, according to a report from the U.S. Commerce Department released Wednesday.

Sales dropped to an annual pace of 309,000 with the median price falling to $203,500 in January, the lowest since December 2003. At the current sales rate, there is a 9.1 months' inventory of new homes.

New home purchases are 6 percent of the housing market.

“New-home sales may be at rock-bottom levels, but it looks like the housing correction is not over yet,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., said before the report. “Everyone who was going to buy for the tax credit has already purchased a new home.”

Meanwhile Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, narrowed its losses as new orders doubled. “The housing market took several years to recover, following the downturn of the late 1980s and early 1990s,” Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said in the statement. “We expect this recovery to follow a similar pattern.”

Source: Bloomberg, Bob Willis (02/24/2010)

Foreclosure Bargains Getting Harder to Find

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Home buyers hoping to snag a really good deal on a foreclosed home are finding it increasingly difficult because supply is shrinking.

The number of foreclosures that are available for sale nationwide fell to 617,000 in December, down from 845,000 in November 2008, reports Barclays Capital.

Not only have attractive homes in popular neighborhoods already been snapped up, but also government help for distressed buyers is delaying more foreclosures.

Demand is driving up prices. Investors say typical prices have climbed from 75 percent of appraised value to 85 percent or higher when there are bidding wars.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (02/23/2010)

IRS Clarifies What's Needed to Claim Tax Credit

Mon, 22 Feb 2010 15:45:00 GMT

The Internal Revenue Service has clarified which documentation taxpayers need to submit to claim the first-time and move-up homebuyer tax credit.

While the IRS is still requiring the filing of Form 5405, it is not demanding that all parties’ signatures be on the HUD-1 settlement document in areas where requiring both the buyer and the seller to sign the document isn’t common.

The IRS clarification says: "In areas where signatures are not required on the settlement document, the IRS has clarified that it will accept a settlement statement if it is completed and valid according to local law. … The IRS encourages those buyers to sign the settlement statement prior to attaching it to the tax return.”

For repeat buyers, the IRS is seeking documentation that home buyers have lived in the previous property for a consecutive five of the past eight years. Proof can include property tax records, home owner insurance records, or mortgage interest statements.

http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2010022201?OpenDocument

New Listing @ 3214 N Sheridan!

Fri, 19 Feb 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Covered front porch & spacious entry welcome you into this spacious 3 bedroom full of character. Updated kitchen fully applianced w/ newer stainless steel appliances, ceramic tile floor, dishwasher, & butler's pantry. Gorgeous hardwood floors throughout. Relax in the fireplaced LR. Large FDR opens to back patio, great for entertaining. 2 car garage w/ extra storage & large workshop w/ additional bath will keep any hobbyist busy. Large walk in cedar lined closet, perfect for storage. Updated bath w/ tile floor & pedestal sink. Conveniently located close to 74 & across from St. Philimena. $122,000

Call the Jodi Lemkemann Team today @ 309-303-1000!

2010: The Year of the First-Time Buyer?

Thu, 18 Feb 2010 02:00:00 GMT

According to the Chinese calendar, 2010 is the Year of the Tiger. But in real estate, 2010 may come to be known as the “Year of the First-Time Home Buyer.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, says there will be 1.84 million homes sold to first-time home buyers in 2010, compared with 1.73 million in 2009.

These buyers will invariably make some mistakes that they will come to regret a few years down the road, some experts say, including failing to use a real estate professional to help them manage the transaction.

Real estate professionals have the time and the knowledge to sift through thousands of listings, creating market analyses to judge pricing and other key features, points out Ray Boss Jr., a practitioner with RE/MAX Realty Group in Maryland.

"I would want someone who is going to look out for my interests first and foremost," says Boss. "Someone who knows the contracts, who has experience negotiating, and who can walk me through the entire process smoothly — step by step — and make sure I get the house that's right for me."

Source: U.S. News & World Report, Kimberly Castro (02/18/2010)

8 Ways to Make Your Home Green

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:24:00 GMT

With pre-existing homes there are several options to outfit them with an eco-friendly twist. Here are eight energy-saving features that, over the long term, can also save you in home energy costs. For a more detailed analysis of cost savings, visit GreenandSave.com.

1.) Low-flush toilets

2.) Energy Star approved washers and dryers, a quick and easy suggestion from both Mlachak and Persha.

3.) FSC/NFC Sustainable woods in floors, countertops and cabinets: The Forest Stewardship Council certifies woods as sustainable, says Mlachak. Bamboo is a good choice as it is the fastest-growing, most renewable wood, says Caine. “It grows and grows and grows. Bamboo is such an amazing material.”

4.) Tankless water heater: Water is heated just prior to use, requiring less energy than if the hot water were stored for a long period. It lasts two to three times as long, says Plessett.

5.) Low- or zero-VOC paints

6.) Low-flow faucets and shower heads

7.) Radiant heat

8.) Use of recycled or reclaimed materials in construction, and locally if possible: This minimizes the carbon footprint so that fewer fossil fuels are needed to either make or transport the materials across several states. “Any materials you’re taking out of the home, properly dispose by reusing or dropping off at the right facility,” says Caine.

9.) Motion-sensor lights: “That can be very useful with children who might not always remember to turn off the lights when leaving a room,” says Persha.

http://www.realtor.org/rmohome_and_design/architecturecoach/articlearchive/1002_architecturecoach_green

Home Price Reductions Level Off

Tue, 16 Feb 2010 02:00:00 GMT

The share of homes on the market with price reductions declined to an average of 21 percent as of Feb. 1, according to Trulia.com, which has been tracking the information since April 2009.

This is a significant decrease compared to November 2009, when 26 percent of homes had at least one price reduction

The total dollar amount cut from home prices dropped to $22.6 billion as of Feb. 1, down from $28.1 billion in November, a 19 percent decrease.

The average discount for price-reduced homes is holding steady at 11 percent off the original listing price.

Here are the cities with the largest decrease in listings with price reductions between last November and this month, according to Trulia.

San Francisco, -46
Oakland, Calif., -43
Sacramento, -42
San Jose, -40
Indianapolis, -39
Seattle, -37
San Diego, -33
New York, -33

Source: Trulia.com (02/16/2010)

New Listing @ 164 Zimmerman, East Peoria

Mon, 15 Feb 2010 11:19:00 GMT

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Maintenance Must-Dos

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 02:00:00 GMT

First-time buyers often don’t know much about home maintenance. You can help by giving them a maintenance schedule that’ll prevent small problems from turning into big headaches.

Our maintenance checklist was compiled with the help of Lou Manfredini, Ace Hardware’s home improvement spokesperson and star of the “Mr. Fix-It” show on Chicago’s WGN-AM radio, and Frank Lesh, president of the American Society of Home Inspectors and head of his own home inspection company, Home Sweet Home Inspection Co., in Indian Head Park, Ill.

Change your furnace filters monthly. “It’s so easy to do but so critical,” says Lesh. Clogged filters decrease furnace efficiency and can cause breakdowns.

Drain your water heater at least once a year. Sediment will drain out along with the water from the water tank. Removing sediment can prolong the heater’s useful life.

Clean the coils. If you have baseboard heating units that use hot water, clear dust from the coils inside the units to maximize heating efficiency. Clean dust whenever you see it accumulating. If you have a hot water boiler/furnace, you should also oil the pump inside the furnace twice a year, says Lesh. Look for the three spots on the pump designated for oiling.

Check your circuits. Test the performance of the circuit breakers in your electrical circuit box twice a year by flipping them off and back on. If you have a circuit that keeps shutting off with normal daily electrical use, call an electrician. A faulty circuit breaker could indicate a short in the wiring inside your walls.

Watch out for drips. Check under sinks periodically to look for leaks or water stains that might indicate leaks. Catching a small problem early can prevent water damage. Use a plunger to clean out sinks and tubs whenever water doesn’t drain normally.

Be aware of life spans. Water heaters, furnaces, roofs, and other key components of your home should be replaced before they fail, based on their average useful lives. Here’s a general ballpark of the life span for key components:

- Exterior house paint: 5-10 years
- Furnace: 15-50 years
- Roof: 13-15 years
- Water heater: 7-15 years
- Wood deck staining: 4-7 years

Keep the wet out. Water is a major enemy of your house. Check each season for signs of water damage to your home. Flashing, the metal pieces used to seal the areas between roofs and chimneys and around doors and windows, are especially vulnerable to damage by wind or age. Loose flashing can let water seep under a roof or inside walls, which in turn can cause mold.

Get to the bottom of things. Check your home’s foundation for cracks or gaps that could let in water or varmints. Also look at the ground around your house. As homes age, they often sink slightly below the surrounding ground. This settling lets water puddle against the foundation and possibly damage it, notes Manfredini. Doing major landscaping work also can cause changes to the ground’s pitch that let water flow toward the house.

Look up. Chimneys take a great deal of weather abuse. Visually inspect them each year for signs of loose mortar or loose or missing bricks. Have the insides of chimneys cleaned every two to three years. Also check your roof for loose shingles or dangling gutters.

http://www.realtor.org/archives/feature6feb08

What a Home Inspection Should Cover

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Home inspections will vary depending on the type of property you are purchasing. A large historic home, for example, will require a more specialized inspection than a small condominium. However, the following are the basic elements that a home inspector will check. You can also use this list to help you evaluate properties you might purchase.

For more information, try the virtual home inspection at www.ASHI.org, the Web site of the American Society of Home Inspectors.

Structure: A home’s skeleton impacts how the property stands up to weather, gravity, and the earth. Structural components, including the foundation and the framing, should be inspected.

Exterior: The inspector should look at sidewalks, driveways, steps, windows, and doors. A home’s siding, trim, and surface drainage also are part of an exterior inspection.

Doors and windows
Siding (brick, stone, stucco, vinyl, wood, etc.)
Driveways/sidewalks
Attached porches, decks, and balconies

Roofing: A well-maintained roof protects you from rain, snow, and other forces of nature. Take note of the roof’s age, conditions of flashing, roof draining systems (pooling water), buckled shingles, loose gutters and downspouts, skylight, and chimneys.

Plumbing: Thoroughly examine the water supply and drainage systems, water heating equipment, and fuel storage systems. Drainage pumps and sump pumps also fall under this category. Poor water pressure, banging pipes, rust spots, or corrosion can indicate problems.

Electrical: Safe electrical wiring is essential. Look for the condition of service entrance wires, service panels, breakers and fuses, and disconnects. Also take note of the number of outlets in each room.

Heating: The home’s heating system, vent system, flues, and chimneys should be inspected. Look for age of water heater, whether the size is adequate for the house, speed of recovery, and energy rating.

Air Conditioning: Your inspector should describe your home cooling system, its energy source, and inspect the central and through-wall cooling equipment. Consider the age and energy rating of the system.

Interiors: An inspection of the inside of the home can reveal plumbing leaks, insect damage, rot, construction defects, and other issues. An inspector should take a close look at:
Walls, ceilings and floors
Steps, stairways, and railings
Countertops and cabinets
Garage doors and garage door systems

Ventilation/insulation: To prevent energy loss, check for adequate insulation and ventilation in the attic and in unfinished areas such as crawlspaces. Also look for proper, secured insulation in walls. Insulation should be appropriate for the climate. Excess moisture in the home can lead to mold and water damage.

Fireplaces: They’re charming, but they could be dangerous if not properly installed. Inspectors should examine the system, including the vent and flue, and describe solid fuel burning appliances.

Source: American Society of Home Inspectors

5 Most Dangerous Hazards in a Home

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:37:00 GMT

Home owners beware: Several dangers may lurk in a home. If you’re not careful, they could make you sick. Pillar to Post, a home inspection company, reviews how to spot these dangers in the home and encourages you to contact a home inspector if your home may be at risk for any of these potential dangers.

1. Radon: a colorless, odorless gas that can seep into the home from the ground. Radon has been called the second most common cause of lung cancer.
What to look for: Basements or anything with protrusion into the ground offer entry points for radon. The Environmental Protection Agency publishes a map of high prevalence areas for radon. A radon test can determine if high levels of radon are present.

2. Asbestos: a fibrous material once popular in building materials because it provides heat insulation and fire resistance. But asbestos was banned in 1985. It may still be found in older home’s insulation materials, floor tiles, roof coverings, and siding. If disturbed or damaged, it can enter the air and cause severe illness.
What to look for: Homes built prior to 1985 are at risk of having asbestos within construction materials. Home owners should especially be careful when remodeling because disturbing insulation may cause the asbestos to become airborne.

3. Lead: a toxic metal used in home products for many years that can contribute to several health problems, especially among children. Exposure can occur from deteriorating lead-based paint, pipes, or lead-contaminated dust or soil.
What to look for: Homes built prior to 1978 may have lead present. Look for peeling paint and check old pipes. To get a HUD-insured loan, buyers must show a certificate that homes built prior to 1978 are lead-safe.

4. Hazardous products: stockpiles of hazardous household items — such as paint solvents, pesticides, fertilizers, or motor oils — that can create a dangerous situation if not properly stored or disposed. They can cause illness or even death if small amounts are ingested.
What to look for: Make sure these items aren’t tucked away in corners, crawl spaces, garages, or garden sheds. Home owners often don’t realize these products can pose a danger and may forget they’re storing them. But buyers don’t want it to become their problem — and expense — to dispose of. If these products are found, make sure the buyer requires their removal and gets a disposal certificate prior to closing, which proves the products were disposed of properly and not just dumped in the backyard.

5. Groundwater contamination: the result of hazardous chemicals that are illegally disposed of and then seep through the soil and enter water supplies. A leaking underground oil tank or faulty septic system can contribute to this.
What to look for: Look for any conditions that may be conducive to leakage. Homes near light industrial areas or facilities may be at risk. Also a concern: areas once used for industry that are now residential. Pillar to Post offers a Neighborhood Environmental Report that details any dangers or remedies of environmental incidences and sources of contamination that have occurred at a specified address and within its vicinity.

Source: Pillar to Post

4 Reasons to Sell Now

Tue, 09 Feb 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Selling a property in this tough market can seem like a challenge. Here are four factors that actually make this a good time to post a For-Sale sign.

Sell low and buy low. Because all property values are down, the loss on the property a home owner sells is really only a paper loss because the next property he buys also will be a bargain. If he buys smartly, when prices come back up in a few years, he’ll be in better shape.
Down-payment help is widely available. While nothing-down loans have disappeared, it is easy to find down-payment assistance for lower-income and first-time home buyers. Programs vary all over the country, but one good way to find them is to search online for “down-payment assistance programs” and the name of your region.
Your uncle has money to share. Besides the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit and the $6,500 move-up credit, there are an array of energy tax credits that can make home improvements pay off in cash.
Good help is available. Really talented real estate practitioners, contractors, and designers are available and eager for business.

Source: McClatchy Tribune, Kate Forgach (02/07/2010)

What Will the Market's New Normal Be?

Mon, 08 Feb 2010 09:03:00 GMT

In a new study, "Housing in America: The Next Decade," Urban Land Institute senior resident fellow John McIlwain says the housing market will not return to what it was prior to the downturn but rather that a "new normal" will take its place.

He expects another 10 percent decrease in residential prices this year, a jump in the number of borrowers abandoning "underwater" mortgages, and a change in consumer perceptions of homeownership.

"The emotional impact on the children and parents and disillusion about the 'joys' of homeownership will be intense; new attitudes to homeownership and the American dream will emerge," McIlwain writes.

He expects home price appreciation to hover around 1 percent or 2 percent per year after the market recovers and the national homeownership rate to drop from 67 percent currently to 62 percent by 2020.

In the coming decade, McIlwain expects the following:

Older baby boomers to move to urban, mixed-use, mixed-age centers near family instead of retiring to Sun Belt communities;
Immigrants to snub the suburbs in favor of more close-knit communities;
Younger boomers to face the challenges of lost home equity and a smaller pool of move-up buyers;
Generation Y to rent for long periods by choice or because they are paying off student loans or have stagnant incomes.

Source: Inman News (02/01/10)